Happy New Year

Happy New Year everyone,

This is the first New Year in the last 36 that I did not watch one bowl game or another, or see the Rose Parade on TV, yet somehow I survived. On New Years day in Germany its as quiet outside as a Cathedral (James will tell you how quiet that is) and there were very few cars on the streets and the only people you see are a few walking their dogs or pushing a baby stoller, with child wrapped better and tighter then an eskimo baby, barely peaking out of a small breathing hole in the hood over its tiny head, like a baby seal coming up for air in the ice flow. The weather does not slow down these people, even though it is only 21 or 22 degrees fahrenheit outside, but a night of partying does cause them to stay home and recuperate. The fireworks on our street alone went on till at least 1AM and in other parts of town it was longer and I can only guess how much beer was consumed in Chemnitz alone but probably sufficient to float the USS Kennedy.

This year turned out to be somewhat mild in comparison to previous episodes because, so I have been told and read in the local papers, the financial situation is not as strong as in past years. In other words the germans are beginning to realize that 2009 will bring more unemployment and lay-offs along with the resultant cutbacks in personal and public (government spending). Unemployment has been high here in the East (between 15-20%) depending on the area one lives and now in the western parts of germany, where it has been 10-12% over the last 15 years, it is also expected to increase. Can you imagine unemployment that high in the US. That's what I feel compelled to write to you about now. I think it's possible to see those kinds of numbers in the US. The reason I came to that conclusion is based on a sleepy night I had 2 days ago. I was not feeling great when I went to bed and , for whatever reason, my mind began reviewing the financial events of the past 2-3 years so that by 4AM I realized that I could give up on sleep. I got up and started to jot down a few thoughts that had come to me such as escalating property values over the last decade, increasing fuel costs, bankruptcy and near bankruptcy of several large businesses (think airlines), business fraud in a scale unheard of and to some degree unprosecuted not only under the Bush Admin but also und the previous admin. Then throw in things like the collapse of the sub-prime mortgage market and the resulting crash of the real estate and complete mortgage market, the collapse of several major banks and the near demise of the US Auto industry (and some in Europe and elsewhere) and the near bankruptcy of several major cities and states (does the financial collapse of State Government of California scare anyone) and one asks himself what is next. Do I sound alarmist? I hope so.

In my opinion much of our problem comes from incompetence and corruption on all levels of business and government, inadequate planning by the same and ignorance of apathy on our part, and at the present I do not see these fundamental underlying problems being addressed or changed significantly. Perhaps, as we have all viewed the events of the past few years, we have just blithely ignored the warning signs that have been all around us hoping that nothing would disturb our personal world but how much longer can we afford to do that? Some say that the new Administration will change all that but it seems to me that when we talk about giving federal aid to the banks and auto industry without required radical change or accountability in the management of those entities, then, as the saying goes, we find ourselves on a boat without paddles on that famous river in Egypt. We might see a small euphoric bump in the stock market following the inauguration but if the fundament elements of the current condition do not change, and no one, including O'bama, has explained what that might be, then the current downward spiral will continue.

So why am I writing this, because, candidly stated, I have no great ideas on how to change the coarse of events other than to prepare for what I see as tough times coming and I am not talking about weeks or months but probably years. If I am wrong then please, tell me how. So what I am doing is taking inventory of my personal situation to determine what I can do to not only protect the few assets I have now but also determine ways I can help in small ways to strengthen my personal economy and help friends and family do the same. I am writing because I don't think that I can do this alone and I know you all have great ideas so I would like to hear what you have to say. Maybe we can start an American beer craze here in Germany. Just kidding, but the point is the process starts with ideas. Who would've thought that $$$$ could be made selling used soft drink bottles. So put your thinking caps on. We, as thinking Americans, have the ability to work and think our way through this, I am convinced, but if we wait for others in government or business to save us the country will fail.

In the meantime I am fleshing out a budget plan and recommend that each of you personally take some time to develop one for your own households. A family is much like a biz and a biz that doesn't account for expenses and asset management doesn't last long as an entity. I would try to have some food storage on hand so my family could at least get through a crisis such a natural disaster (Utah think earthquack), a man made disaster (terrorist strike on major city or even a disruption in transportation) or personal unemployment or dibilitating sickness. The auto industry might not appreciate this but I would not recommend the purchase of a new auto unless it were absolutely necessary and I would not be buying any other major asset unless it could almost be guaranteed to generate income, and I that case I would love to know what it is. I hope this email is just the beginning of some ideas we can exchange so that we can begin to be part of the solution and not merely the problem. Love you all and hope that the challenge of facing and living in the year 2009 makes of all stronger and happier people. God bless you all.

Elder Austin (your pops, opa, and brother)